As we await the ratification of the ceasefire, there is euphoria in Israel in the hope that the remaining hostages will be released 72 hours after it is agreed at cabinet level. The meeting is penned for 8pm tonight. All being well, the hostages should be free Sunday and the very latest Monday. It our understanding that there are 20 hostages alive, leaving 28 bodies to be recovered. Hamas has admitted that they do not know the whereabouts of all of the bodies which will be harrowing for the families who are expecting to lay their loves to rest.
There is much excitement and talk of a long term peace , but in a nutshell no one in Israel actually believes that Hamas are going to voluntarily follow through with the 21 point peace agreement. They haven’t yet even agreed to disarm, but only to give up offensive weapons.
In Israel we’ve seen it and heard it all before.
Arafat walked away from the Camp David peace proposals which gave the Palestinians a De-facto state with 92% of the West Bank and a further 3% of Israel, and a shared administration over Jerusalem : you don’t really get a better comprise than that !
In exchange for the hostages, Israel will be releasing around 250 prisoners, many of whom are serving multiple life sentences for mass murder, and around 1700 Gazan detainees, arrested since the massacre.
In particular Hamas demanded, but Israel has refused, the release of one of the most prominent Palestinian leaders, Marwan Barghouti, who was involved in the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and was convicted of organising multiple terror attacks between 2000-2002.
Israel has also said they will not be releasing terrorists involved in the October 7th attack.
Trump is taking all the glory and may he enjoy it, as long as it delivers the hostages and a chance to finally dismantle Hamas.
But the agreement of phase one is much more complicated and multi faceted than Trump being King of the World. Hamas are a proxy of Iran and Qatar : both love to run proxy wars and create chaos without getting their hands dirty. The Palestinians are the pawns of the Muslim world as a permanent thorn in the side of Israel, kept stateless and indoctrinated with the belief that martyrdom will restore their pride and fed the lie that they will one day destroy Israel. Meanwhile, Qatar and Iran just swing their legs leaving the Palestinians to do the dying.
For many years the status quo suited the Bibi government as there was never a chance of a 2 state solution, something his coaltion fears. It suited the Arab world who couldn't face more wars with Israel that they would probably lose again.
This all changed when Israel attacked Qatar. The world was up in arms but it brought Qatar to the table, this most duplicitous country that focuses on destabilising, sponsoring terror, and fermenting unrest, but really objected when its little “petrol station” was hit directly.
The attack on Iran by the US and Israel blind sided them as, like Qatar, they do not expect to get their home country attacked during their proxy wars. The snap-back sanctions has weakened them further.
Hamas is now feeling isolated. Their disguised conspirators at UNWRA are sidelined and the only support they have in reality are the marchers in Europe, Australia and the students on the campuses in the US. A ragtag bunch of lefties, Islamists and Queers for Palestine. They can’t now help Hamas much as they sit in the few tunnels remaining or run between the rubble trying to avoid the IDF . The Houthi continue to support Hamas by sending daily rockets and drones to the centre and Eilat but Israel has been hitting back hard.
The Middle East is a different place now. Lebanon has tremendous opportunities to drive out Hezbollah and Syria is showing promise without the tyrant Assad who is dying of poison in his Russian compound.
The IDF have fought so bravely and suffered tremendous losses to bring us to the place where we stand today with the hope of a regional peace within our grasp.
Trump has done a marvellous job, turning the screw just at the right time when Hamas have no one to turn to. Getting Turkey on side is miraculous and we do not know what he offered in addition to the F35’s. The world smarted at his tariffs, but they now appreciate he is an unpredictable character who holds the balance of power and is not afraid to use his power, however, unpopular he may become.
Israel made the huge mistake of thinking that Gaza was contained . It was total insanity to think the situation could carry on indefinitely, but each time a war broke out Israel was never allowed to finish it and this is what brought the situation to this tragic explosion of October 7th and all its consequences.
Hamas went from strength to strength supported by European and Qatari money while quietly building an underground city of war larger than anything the world had ever seen.
That Hamas is decimated at least in Gaza and both Israel and the Palestinians must try to move on and heal and carve out a new reality where both people can live in peace. This may be possible now the malevolent players have been either destroyed or curtailed sufficiently for Trump’s plan to morph into a new reality. We must pray for the best outcome while mourning those we lost .
Kind Regards
Carolyne Davis