The diabolical situation in Israel shows no signs of improving in the near future. Amazingly, in some areas, life goes on as normal, despite the daily threats. The Olympic athletes returned home with seven hard won medals, and unlike other countries where people flee when war is imminent , Israelis scramble to get home. Tens of thousands have been stranded overseas as more and more airlines cancel their flights with only ElAl being consistently reliable.
My own grandchildren travelled 5 hours to the airport not knowing for certain if the journey to the airport was safe or if the plane would take off. While they sat on the tarmac Hamas fired rockets at Tel Aviv with one landing in the sea and the other one in Gaza. The bravery of the Israelis who are trying to carry on as normal under such stressful circumstances must be admired.
The political situation within Israel is just as hard to understand with a huge split between the people and within the cabinet. Delicate negotiations to release the hostages are underway in Doha. The government minister Ben G’vir is not being helpful by exercising his right to pray on the Temple Mount on Tisha B’av. He must be well aware that the status of the Temple Mount and Jewish prayer there sets the emotions of the Arabs aflame, and this is not the time to add more fuel to a burning fire.
Reports of an attack by extremist Jewish settlers on a Palestinian village in the West Bank are very damaging outside of Israel. They feed in the negative narrative that has taken hold and gives the international community a chance to use this against Israel. The violence against Jews in the West Bank has virtually been ignored and there are non stop attacks on the roads against civilians; shootings, Molotov cocktails and stoning are common occurrences, but vigilante actions help no one and only deepens the hostilities between communities.
Smotrich is another voice within the government that does Israel no favours. Israel is not looking to re-occupy Gaza, but to live in peace with her neighbours. Smotrich has a different dream in his head, but where Gaza is concerned, he is very much in the minority.
The western press jump on any opportunity to paint the IDF as ruthless child killers, and despite the publication of the names and photos of the terrorists killed in a strike against a school building in Gaza, the media still insists that Israel is bombing schools and safe zones.
While 115 hostages remain missing it is estimated that only around 33 are still alive and the hourglass is rapidly running out for those poor souls who have been held for over 300 days.
It’s difficult to see what is being achieved in Gaza now except more destruction and the unnecessary loss of soldier’s lives, but as there is no acceptable plan for the day after, we are stuck now just trying to hold back the re-arming of Hamas who are still active and continue to fire rockets.
The idea that the PA might be a partner for peace was flushed out of the water this week when Abbas addressed the Turkish parliament with his “victory or martyrdom” speech.
Now that the US has decided for the moment to stop playing both sides, we see Israel’s prime enemy, Iran, thinking twice before launching an all out attack. Had the US taken such a stance at the start of the Gaza war it would likely have been over much sooner with a lot less loss of life. Iran has funded and instigated a multi front war on Israel which was enabled by the Biden administration funnelling billions in sanction relief before October 7th.
Hamas’s killing machine was well funded by the UN and EU. Many countries are resurrected their payments to UNWRA, despite the fact that Israel proved they will complicit in the October 7th massacre and that they ran schools that educated the children in hatred and jihad, and quietly allowed hospitals to be used as terrorist headquarters.
The negotiations to free the hostages and bring about a ceasefire have failed time and time again because the US continues to project their vision onto a death cult whose values are diametrically opposed to the those of the West. The one thing you can safely claim about Hamas and Hezbollah is they are honest about their intentions towards the Jewish state. They have clearly stated their objective to destroy it. Iran has openly declared they wish to annihilate Israel. The problem is that the US is not listening and cannot process such blunt threats of total annihilation.
Only now that their assets in the area are being attacked, they suddenly recognise what a Middle East without Israel could look like. The Jewish State is the Queen on the chess board, without which they are guaranteed all out war with no allies. The US have started to talk tough and Iran are considering how they can punish Israel without the furious backlash from the US.
This weekend saw barrages of rockets with 55 plus fired from Hezbollah over Shabbat alone. Lebanon is being used by Hezbollah as a launching pad and the whole country is now facing a lack of fuel which is likely to bring their national grid to halt.
Israel is faced with stark choices, either continue fighting and totally destroy the capabilities of Hamas, who have also infiltrated the West Bank, placing heavy costs both to the soldiers , the hostages, the economy and the world opinion. Or make a deal that would hopefully, see the remaining hostages released but would likely take Israel back to October 6th, and guarantee more wars with Hamas and a recommencement of rocket fire on the southern communities.The Egyptians have shown they will not prevent arms being smuggled through the Philadelphi corridor. A further 85 tunnels leading into Egypt have just been discovered and destroyed !!
The Hamas charter remains unchanged, the PA, want to continue the struggle and as yet the other Arab countries have shown no interest in absorbing Gaza and re-educating the population to live in peace. Therefore, Israel cannot claim any victory in their aims to destroy Hamas despite 10 months of fierce fighting !
The choice with Hezbollah and Iran are just as stark. It is no longer disputed that Iran is racing towards a nuclear arsenal, which it clearly would like to use against Israel. Hezbollah have lost some key leaders but their cache of weapons remain and we can see they are not afraid to use them. They are, however, afraid of all out war as they could lose their stranglehold on Lebanon, so they are holding back. Make no mistake these hundreds of rockets a day, that have forced around 80,000 Israelis from their homes, is just Hezbollah tickling Israel to show their capabilities. All out war will have most of the country trapped in shelters, probably without electricity, and we must remember it is August and much of the country cannot survive long without air conditioning.
Israel’s best hope is to severally damage Hezbollah and push them back behind the Litani River, as per the UN resolution, but stopping Iran’s march to nuclear capability will need to be an international effort. The head of the octopus is Iran and we are just cutting off tentacles that quickly regenerate.
It is less than 2 weeks until the school year resumes and as yet no one can predict what the future will bring.
Kind Regards
Carolyne Davis